Theodore Roosevelt and members of the Republican National Committee at Roosevelt’s estate in Oyster Bay, NY. in 1904. (Image: Public Domain via Picryl)
The year after a presidential election is a politically quiet period–at least as far as the public is concerned. While there are some elections, most of the action is inside baseball stuff. Potential candidates weigh their options, consultants get hired, strategy gets set, money gets raised and, generally, everyone gets their ducks in a row.
This year is no exception. But the controversial and transformative nature of the Trump administration means that 2025 is higher profile and more important than 2021, 2017 or any other first post election year.
This is an important year in politics because it is the first test of how America feels about the second Trump administration.
So far, it’s been a good year for the Democrats. Susan Crawford was elected to replace retiring Democrat Ann Walsh Bradley to maintain a one-vote margin on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
There have been two special elections in the Florida House on April 1. The Republicans won both dark red districts, but by about 10% less than they had won the seats a year earlier.
Things also look promising at the state level. Thirty-one state level special elections had been held as of July 14. It has been a near-split: The Republicans have won 15 and the Democrats 16. Perhaps more importantly, The Democrats won the cumulative vote by 15.4 percent and flipped seats in Pennsylvania and Iowa.
Perhaps most importantly, in 28 of the 32 races the percentage of votes won by Democrats was higher than the corresponding district’s results in last year’s presidential election.
Continue reading after the music break…
Three giants: Louis Armstrong, Dizzy Gillespie and, at the very end, Jackie Gleason. The byplay is that Diz accidentally spits on Armstrong, which probably was common when wind musicians play close to each other. Armstrong’s reaction is of course perfect. The song is “Umbrella Man.”
More on the year ahead:
It hasn’t all been sweetness and light, however. While Democratic candidates are generally looking good, the party itself is a bit of a train wreck. It’s popularity, according to CNN, is an abysmal 22 percent. The most likely reason for the seemingly counter-intuitive situation is the generational shift the party is undergoing.
The year is half over and it’s good to look ahead. Featured races for the rest of 2025 include the mayoral race in New York City, three seats on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court and races for both governor and lieutenant governor in New Jersey and Virginia.
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has seven seats. Five of those seats are currently held by Democrats. Three of those–held by Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht – will be voted upon on November 4. A sweep by the Republicans would give them control; anything less retains the status quo.
These all are very important races in their own right. After all, about 3.15 million people live in the three states. These elections and the other “specials” alaos are important because of what they say about the mood of the electorate. They will set the stage for the mid-terms in November, 2026.
New Jersey was Democratic in the 2024 presidential election, but by about 10% less than in 2020. The nominees are Milkie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli.
The Virginia race will be particularly interesting. Trump cut the gap from about 10 percent in 2020 to less than 6 percent. The mass firing of federal workers and reduction in contractors likely makes Virginia a promising state for the Democrats and, more broadly, the popularity of Trump’s approach to governing. The race pits Democrat Abigail Spanberger against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears,who is currently the state’s lieutenant governor.
The bottom line is that 2025 is an important year. Please consider learning about the issues and the candidates.
